Is the Refund Bump Real? Analyzing 2026 Tax Season Early Returns

We are a few weeks into the 2026 tax filing season, and the early numbers coming out of the IRS paint an interesting picture. Statistics show that the average refund has climbed to $2,476, a solid 14.2% increase over the $2,169 average we saw at this time in 2025. While a $300 increase is welcome news for household budgets, it does trail the $1,000 boost that many Washington policymakers had projected.

However, it is important to remember that we are still in the early innings. As more complex returns are processed, these averages will likely shift. What we can say with certainty is that the provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are beginning to take effect. For our clients here in Carmel and across the Midwest, understanding these specific changes is vital—especially if you have past-due tax issues or have hesitated to file in previous years.

OBBBA Provisions Driving the Numbers

The OBBBA introduced several targeted deductions intended to lower taxable income. Whether you are catching up on unfiled returns or planning for the current year, these are the key areas affecting the bottom line:

  • The Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: This provision targets the extra pay mandated by the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA). Essentially, the "half" of your "time-and-a-half" pay can now be deducted. This is capped at $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly.

  • The Tips Tax Deduction: Service industry workers in designated occupations can now deduct up to $25,000 of "qualified tips" annually. To claim this, married taxpayers must file jointly.

    Planning Note: High earners should be aware of phase-outs. These deductions begin to reduce when Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) hits $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers) and disappear entirely at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively.

Senior woman reviewing financial documents
  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you bought a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, the interest is now deductible up to $10,000. The loan must be secured by the vehicle and cannot be a personal loan from a relative. Income phase-outs start at $100,000 MAGI ($200,000 for joint filers).

  • Enhanced Standard and Senior Deductions: This is a significant shift for many of our clients seeking tax resolution. The standard deduction has jumped to $31,500 for married couples and $15,750 for singles. Furthermore, there is a new "Senior Bonus" of $6,000 for taxpayers over 65, regardless of whether they itemize. This bonus phases out starting at $75,000 MAGI for singles ($150,000 for couples).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has increased to $2,200 per qualifying child. Full eligibility remains for married couples earning up to $400,000 and single filers up to $200,000.

  • Increased SALT Cap: The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has been raised from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately), providing relief for homeowners. This cap begins to decrease for those with MAGI over $500,000.

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Why Else Are Refunds Higher?

Beyond the new law, a few logistical factors are inflating refund checks:

  • Withholding Mismatches: Because many OBBBA cuts were passed retroactively or mid-year, IRS withholding tables were not immediately updated. This means many employees had too much tax taken out of their paychecks throughout 2025, resulting in a larger refund now.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Tax brackets were adjusted to account for the cost of living, which helps prevent "bracket creep" and naturally lowers liability.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: A portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now refundable, meaning it can trigger a payment from the IRS even if you owe zero tax.

Tax paperwork and calculator

Navigating IRS Challenges

While the refund news is positive, the administrative side remains difficult. The 2026 season is a stress test for the IRS, which is operating with a reduced workforce—down 25% since January 2025—and a lingering backlog. We are already seeing a slight dip in processing speeds, with returns received and processed down 2.6% and 3.1%, respectively.

For taxpayers with unfiled returns or those facing collection actions, this IRS strain can result in delays or confusing automated notices. Do not let this deter you. At Midwest Tax Resolution, we specialize in cutting through the red tape. If you are hesitant to file your 2025 return because you fear the outcome or suspect you missed previous years, reach out to us. We will ensure every new OBBBA deduction is applied correctly to minimize your liability and help you find an equitable solution with the government.

Take Control of Your Tax Situation
We’ve helped countless individuals and businesses get back on track with the IRS. Reach out today for a confidential consultation and start moving toward financial relief.
Contact Us
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